Netherlands Elections: Major Parties and Main Issues in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most rightwing government in modern history with a more centrist and pragmatic alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Its Significance
Snap general elections were called after the breakdown of the previous government in June, when rightwing figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks established a fragile four-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the prime minister position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has lived under police protection for twenty years, resorted to sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his partners refused to adopt a far-reaching 10-point anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to guard frontiers, turning back all asylum seekers, closing most asylum centers and repatriating all Syrian refugees.
While backing of the PVV has declined, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. However, main Dutch political formations have collectively rejected forming a government with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are predicted to enter parliament, but no single party is expected to secure above about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, generally an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after alliance talks that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
There are 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 seats to achieve majority status. No single party typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – earlier if governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an certified roster of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that wins less than 1% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in recent decades by a significant drop in support for the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this process has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It proposes, among other policies, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the military to fight "urban violence", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the start of the millennium, but slumped to only five mandates in the last election.
Nevertheless, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a full-blown merger, is on track to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Headed by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made building more new homes its primary focus, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its manifesto.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a platform centred on residential construction (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its head, accused of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decrease. It is proposing business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued FvD – and appears to be profiting from an departure of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to lose out, with the centrist party not even sure of legislative seats.
The top issues so far have been immigration, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – demonstrations against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the nation is lacking 400,000 homes).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what alliances are actually possible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, typically the leader of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the government program. This can take months.
Multiple options look plausible, typically including a mix of political groups from moderate left and moderate right. The most probable, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several smaller parties potentially including the conservative party.
