How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.